An inquiry into history, identity, and the political management of violence in Northeast India
-Ramphal Kataria
Abstract
The crisis in Manipur is not an isolated episode of ethnic violence but a deeply layered conflict shaped by history, geography, governance, and competing claims over land and identity. Since 2023, the State has witnessed recurring cycles of violence between the Meitei and Kuki-Zomi communities, resulting in large-scale killings, displacement, and institutional breakdown. This essay examines the roots of the conflict, the structural inequalities between hill and valley regions, and the role of the State in both aggravating and managing the crisis. It critically analyses the actions and inaction of the Union government led by Narendra Modi, the controversial tenure of N. Biren Singh, and the subsequent reinstatement of government under Yumnam Khemchand Singh. The essay argues that the persistence of violence reflects not merely administrative failure but a deeper political approach that allows conflict to linger without structural resolution.
Keywords
Manipur conflict, ethnic violence, state power, BJP, Narendra Modi, Northeast India, displacement, governance crisis, identity politics, national security
I. Historical Context and Structural Faultlines
The conflict in Manipur cannot be understood without situating it within its historical and structural context. The division between the Imphal Valley and the surrounding hill districts is not merely geographical but deeply political and economic. The Meitei community, concentrated in the valley, has historically exercised disproportionate influence over political institutions, administrative machinery, and economic resources. In contrast, the tribal communities inhabiting the hills, including the Kuki-Zomi and Naga groups, have remained relatively marginalized, both in terms of infrastructure and state investment.
This uneven development has created a persistent sense of grievance. Land, in particular, lies at the heart of the conflict. Constitutional protections restrict the transfer of tribal land, safeguarding the hill communities. However, demands by sections of the Meitei community for Scheduled Tribe status have been perceived by tribal groups as a direct threat to these protections. What emerges, therefore, is a contest not just over identity but over access to land, resources, and state power.
The colonial legacy further deepened these divisions. Following the Anglo-Manipur War, British administrative practices institutionalized separation between hills and valley, a pattern that continued in modified form after independence. The postcolonial state inherited and perpetuated these divisions rather than resolving them, allowing structural tensions to simmer beneath the surface.
II. The Outbreak of Violence in 2023
The events of May 2023 marked a turning point, when longstanding tensions erupted into widespread violence. The immediate trigger lay in judicial directions concerning the possible inclusion of the Meitei community in the Scheduled Tribe category. However, the rapid escalation of violence revealed deeper faultlines that had been building over time.
Clashes quickly spread across districts, with both communities experiencing targeted attacks, destruction of property, and loss of life. Villages were burnt, places of worship were vandalized, and civilians were forced to flee their homes. The scale and intensity of the violence transformed the situation into one resembling a prolonged internal conflict rather than sporadic unrest.
What followed was not a single episode but a recurring cycle. Even after periods of relative calm, fresh incidents—ambushes, bombings, and protests—continued to reignite tensions. The persistence of violence indicates that the underlying causes remain unaddressed.
III. Human Cost: Killings Since 2023
The violence has led to significant loss of life across both communities. While exact figures remain contested due to gaps in data and reporting, available estimates provide a broad picture of the scale of human loss.
Year | Meitei Deaths (Approx.) | Kuki-Zomi Deaths (Approx.) | Total Deaths |
2023 | 40–60 | 150–180 | ~200–240 |
2024 | 10–15 | 15–25 | ~25–40 |
2025 | 5–10 | 10–15 | ~15–25 |
2026 | 5–10 | 5–10 | ~10–20 |
Total | 60–95 | 180–230 | ~250–325 |
These figures, though approximate, highlight two important realities. First, the violence has not been confined to a single phase but has persisted over multiple years. Second, while both communities have suffered casualties, the distribution of deaths reflects the intensity and direction of violence during different phases of the conflict. The inability to maintain accurate and transparent data further complicates any attempt at accountability.
IV. Displacement and Fragmentation of Society
Beyond the immediate loss of life, the conflict has resulted in massive displacement. Tens of thousands of people have been forced to leave their homes, seeking refuge in relief camps or migrating to neighbouring states. Entire localities have become ethnically homogenized, with communities retreating into segregated enclaves.
This physical separation has had profound consequences. Social interactions between communities have broken down almost entirely, reinforcing mistrust and hostility. Access to essential services such as healthcare and education has been severely disrupted, particularly for those living in relief camps or remote areas. The long-term impact of such displacement is likely to extend far beyond the immediate crisis, affecting generations.
V. Governance Under Strain: State-Level Failures
The role of the state government under N. Biren Singh has been a subject of intense scrutiny. Allegations of bias, selective enforcement of law, and inflammatory rhetoric have contributed to a perception that the state apparatus failed to act as a neutral arbiter.
Administrative actions preceding the violence, including eviction drives and public narratives targeting specific communities, added to the atmosphere of tension. Once violence erupted, the response was widely seen as inadequate, with delays in controlling mobs, protecting vulnerable populations, and ensuring accountability.
The eventual resignation of the Chief Minister and the imposition of President’s Rule reflected an acknowledgment of governance failure. However, the structural issues that led to the crisis remained unresolved.
VI. The Role of the Union Government
The response of the Union government, led by Narendra Modi, has been marked by a combination of intervention and restraint. Security forces were deployed, and investigative agencies such as the NIA were tasked with probing incidents. Yet, these measures have largely focused on managing immediate threats rather than addressing root causes.
A striking feature of the central response has been the absence of sustained political engagement at the highest level. The Prime Minister did not visit Manipur during the peak of the crisis, a decision that has drawn widespread criticism. In a situation where symbolic gestures carry significant weight, this absence has been interpreted as a lack of urgency.
The central government’s approach appears to prioritize stability over resolution. By containing violence without fundamentally addressing its causes, the situation remains fragile, with the potential for renewed unrest at any time.
VII. Reinstatement of Government and Continuing Instability
The revocation of President’s Rule and the installation of a new government under Yumnam Khemchand Singh was presented as a step toward normalcy. However, the recurrence of violence shortly thereafter suggests that political change alone is insufficient.
Dialogue initiatives have been initiated, but they remain limited in scope and impact. Without addressing issues such as land rights, political representation, and accountability for past violence, these efforts risk becoming symbolic rather than substantive.
VIII. Information Gaps and the Politics of Perception
One of the most challenging aspects of the Manipur crisis is the lack of reliable data. Internet shutdowns, restricted access, and fragmented reporting have created significant gaps in information. This has allowed misinformation and rumours to spread, further inflaming tensions.
The absence of accurate data also hampers humanitarian response. Many displaced individuals remain unaccounted for, particularly those living outside official relief camps. This invisibility compounds their vulnerability and limits the effectiveness of policy interventions.
IX. National Security Implications
The instability in Manipur has implications that extend beyond the state itself. Its proximity to the India-Myanmar border, combined with the influx of refugees and the presence of armed groups, creates a complex security environment. Prolonged unrest risks destabilizing the broader region, affecting neighbouring states and undermining national security.
X. Conclusion: A Crisis Managed, Not Resolved
The situation in Manipur reflects a deeper pattern in governance where conflicts are contained rather than resolved. The recurrence of violence since 2023 demonstrates that the underlying issues—land, identity, representation, and trust—remain unaddressed.
The actions of both the state government under N. Biren Singh and the Union government led by Narendra Modi reveal a gap between administrative measures and political will. The reinstatement of government under Yumnam Khemchand Singh has not yet bridged this gap.
A lasting resolution will require more than security operations or administrative changes. It demands sustained political engagement, accountability for past actions, and a genuine effort to rebuild trust between communities. Without such measures, the cycle of violence is likely to continue, eroding not only the stability of Manipur but also the credibility of the institutions meant to govern it.
References
1. 2023–2026 Manipur conflict
2. BBC News reports on Manipur violence (2023–2026 coverage)
3. Reuters field reports on casualties and displacement in Manipur
4. The Hindu editorials and ground reports on Manipur conflict
5. Supreme Court of India proceedings and observations on Manipur violence (2023–2025)
6. United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights statements on ethnic violence and accountability
7. Human Rights Watch reports on ethnic conflict and state response in Manipur
8. Amnesty International analysis on accountability and human rights violations
9. Editors Guild of India fact-finding report on media coverage of Manipur
10. National Investigation Agency investigation updates on major incidents
11. Government of Manipur official data on casualties and displacement
12. Academic works on Northeast India, ethnic conflict, and political economy (various scholars)
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