~By Ramphal Kataria
The tragic events of 8–9 September 2025 in Kathmandu, where 30 young protesters were killed and over 1,000 injured, have exposed the fragility of Nepal’s fledgling democracy. What began as a peaceful, digitally coordinated protest by Gen Z activists against the ban on 26 mobile applications quickly escalated into a violent clash with security forces. This was not a sudden outburst but the culmination of decades of political instability, poor governance, chronic unemployment, and public disillusionment with unresponsive leadership.
Nepal has a long history of popular uprisings—from the Kot massacre of 1846, through the 1990 Jan Andolan, the Maoist insurgency of the 1990s, and the abolition of monarchy in 2008. Yet, despite becoming one of the rare nations where communists captured power through ballots, the republican project faltered. Fragmentation of parties, corruption, and the inability to deliver development eroded trust in political institutions.
Comparisons with the French Revolution, the Assam Gana Parishad experiment, and the Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi show that civic uprisings often struggle to transform into sustainable governance. Bangladesh’s recent student movement offers the closest parallel: leaderless, digitally coordinated, and youth-driven, but producing a dangerous governance vacuum.
Nepal’s geopolitical position compounds the crisis. Situated between India and China, and increasingly within the orbit of US strategic calculations, Nepal risks becoming a proxy battleground. India’s influence has waned, China has expanded its ties through the Belt and Road Initiative, and the US seeks to anchor Nepal in its Indo-Pacific framework.
Three scenarios lie ahead: (1) a restoration of the old elite order, (2) a technocratic interim arrangement, or (3) democratic renewal through new political vehicles. Only the third path promises durable stability, though it is the hardest to achieve.
For South Asia, Nepal’s unrest signals the dangers of unresolved youth discontent, weak institutions, and external meddling. The lesson is clear: without inclusive governance and credible institutions, fragile democracies remain perpetually at risk of upheaval.
Introduction
On 8–9 September 2025, Nepal witnessed one of the most dramatic upheavals in its republican history. What began as a peaceful, digitally coordinated protest by Gen Z activists in Kathmandu against the government’s decision to ban 26 mobile applications ended in tragedy. By the evening of 9 September, 30 young demonstrators lay dead and more than 1,000 injured, most from police gunfire. For a nation still struggling to consolidate its democratic experiment, the sight of blood on the streets of Kathmandu was not merely a law-and-order crisis. It was a political earthquake that shook the legitimacy of the government and raised questions about the durability of Nepal’s fragile institutions.
The unrest cannot be dismissed as a sudden outburst of youthful indignation. Instead, it reflected accumulated frustrations over chronic unemployment, corruption, stalled nation-building, and the erosion of public trust in political elites. For ordinary Nepali citizens, daily life has long been marked less by opportunity than by turmoil and precarious survival. The September uprising, then, was a symptom of deeper maladies in a state that has yet to find stable footing after dismantling centuries of monarchy.
What happened in those thirty hours also holds lessons beyond Nepal. The intensity of the protests and the brutality of the state’s response have drawn comparisons to Bangladesh’s recent student upsurge, Sri Lanka’s 2022 economic revolt, and even longer historical precedents such as the French Revolution of 1789. Each demonstrates the risks when unorganized mass anger collides with brittle political institutions.
This long-form essay situates the September 2025 events in their historical, regional, and comparative contexts. It traces Nepal’s tradition of popular uprisings, analyzes why the recent movement is uniquely destabilizing, and examines broader implications for South Asia’s fragile democracies.
Historical Roots of Protest in Nepal
Nepal’s history is punctuated by andolans (people’s movements). Far from being aberrations, civic uprisings have been milestones in the nation’s trajectory from monarchy to republicanism.
The Kot Massacre and the Rana Oligarchy (1846–1951)
The Kot massacre of 1846, in which around thirty nobles were slaughtered in a palace coup, marked the rise of the Rana oligarchy.[1] For more than a century thereafter, Nepal was ruled not by kings but by hereditary Rana prime ministers, who centralized power and suppressed dissent. The massacre set a precedent: political change through violence rather than reform.
By the 1940s, resistance to the Ranas intensified. Inspired by Indian independence, Nepali exiles and underground activists mobilized for change. In 1951, following an armed struggle and Indian mediation, the Ranas were overthrown, the monarchy was restored, and a constitutional framework promised limited democracy. Yet this early experiment faltered.
Panchayat Era and the Suppression of Parties (1960–1990)
In 1960, King Mahendra staged a coup, dismissed the elected government, and banned political parties. The Panchayat system that followed was a monarchical, party-less regime that lasted three decades. Although framed as uniquely Nepali, the Panchayat was essentially a method of preserving royal authority.
Dissent persisted, especially among students and workers. The 1979 student movement, which forced a national referendum on whether to retain the Panchayat system, foreshadowed larger democratic demands. Though the monarchy survived, discontent simmered.
The Jan Andolan and Multiparty Democracy (1990)
The 1990 People’s Movement (Jan Andolan) brought hundreds of thousands into the streets, forcing King Birendra to accept multiparty democracy within a constitutional monarchy. Yet hopes for stability soon gave way to disillusionment. Political parties splintered, corruption scandals multiplied, and social inequalities remained entrenched.
Maoist Insurgency and the People’s War (1996–2006)
Amid this disillusionment, the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) launched an armed insurgency in 1996. Their “People’s War” lasted a decade, claiming over 17,000 lives.[2] The insurgency both exposed and deepened the fault lines of Nepali society—between urban and rural, elite and marginalized, high caste and minority.
Jan Andolan II and the Abolition of Monarchy (2006–2008)
By 2005, King Gyanendra’s attempt to reassert royal authority backfired, uniting democratic parties with the Maoists. The 2006 People’s Movement (Jan Andolan II) mobilized millions across Nepal. Unlike the cautious 1990 movement, this uprising demanded the abolition of monarchy itself.
The monarchy was dissolved in 2008, and Nepal was declared a federal democratic republic. The Maoists, remarkably, became the largest party in the Constituent Assembly elections, making Nepal one of the few nations where communists captured power through ballots rather than bullets.
The Republican Turn and the Communist Dilemma (2008–2015)
The overthrow of monarchy in 2008 and the birth of a republic were historic. Rarely in the world have communists come to power through ballot, as they did in Nepal in 2008—much like the EMS Namboodiripad government in Kerala in 1957.
Yet Nepal’s communists faced the classic dilemma: revolutionary structures ill-suited for democratic governance. In theory, communism demands dismantling feudal and capitalist structures before socialism; in practice, Nepal’s leaders inherited a fragile state, empty treasury, and fractured society. Instead of unifying, they splintered into factions of CPN-UML, Maoists, and Madheshi groups, undermining governance and accountability.
The result has been chronic instability, revolving-door governments, and stalled nation-building.
Democratic Fragility Since 2015
The republican project faltered almost immediately. Drafting a new constitution dragged on until 2015. Successive governments rose and fell in rapid succession. Power-sharing deals, corruption, and factionalism eroded public trust. Meanwhile, 40% of working-age Nepalis sought employment abroad, underlining a profound failure of the state to provide opportunities.
Thus, the September 2025 uprising must be seen not as an anomaly but as the latest chapter in a long tradition of rupture and protest, rooted in unaddressed grievances and fragile institutions.
Comparative Analysis: Lessons from Other Movements
The French Revolution (1789) – Like the September 2025 protests, it began with grievances over daily hardships. Leaderless at first, it spiraled into radicalization, the Reign of Terror, and authoritarian rule. Lesson: anger without anchors destabilizes rather than democratizes.
Assam Gan Parishad (1985–90) – Civic movement captured power but collapsed within five years due to weak governance. Lesson: protest legitimacy is not the same as governing legitimacy.
Aam Aadmi Party (2011–present) – Sustained itself only by evolving from activism into structured politics. Lesson: movements endure only if institutionalized.
Bangladesh Student Uprising (2024–25) – Youth-driven, leaderless protests toppled an entrenched regime but left governance uncertain, opening space for technocrats and military actors. Lesson: Nepal faces similar dangers of unrest without resolution.
External Dimensions: Nepal as a Geopolitical Chessboard
Nepal’s fragility cannot be understood without its geopolitical location between India and China. Both powers see Nepal as a buffer, while the United States also views it through the prism of great-power rivalry.
China has deepened economic ties via the Belt and Road Initiative, while cultivating Nepal’s communist factions.
India’s influence, once dominant, has waned due to perceptions of overreach and unequal treaties.
The US, through aid and diplomacy, increasingly frames Nepal within its Indo-Pacific strategy.
The September unrest therefore risks becoming a proxy battlefield. If external actors exploit the vacuum, Nepal’s fragile democracy may be further destabilized.
Nepal’s Democratic Crossroads: Three Scenarios
Scenario | Description | Strengths | Risks | Likely Outcome |
1. Restoration of Elite Order | Return of traditional parties and leaders through backroom deals. | Short-term stability, experienced leadership. | Deepens public alienation, revives corruption, youth anger persists. | Order restored briefly but risks another uprising within 3–5 years. |
2. Technocratic Interregnum | Interim government of academics, ex-bureaucrats, or judges to restore calm. | Projects neutrality, may attract international support. | Lacks grassroots legitimacy, risks capture by external powers. | Governance limps on, but fragile and unsustainable long-term. |
3. Democratic Renewal | Emergence of new, accountable political vehicles led by youth and civil society. | Channelizes anger into institutions, builds long-term stability. | Hardest path: requires leadership, unity, and resources. | Low probability in short term, but only sustainable solution. |
Conclusion
The deaths of thirty young Nepalis in September 2025 are a stark reminder of the unfinished project of democratization. Nepal’s youth are not apolitical; their grievances stem from systemic failures—unemployment, corruption, and exclusion. But like other historical movements, their uprising risks collapse unless anchored in durable institutions.
Three scenarios lie ahead:
1. Restoration of the old elite order – delivers stability but deepens alienation.
2. Technocratic interregnum – promises efficiency but lacks legitimacy.
3. Democratic renewal – hardest but most hopeful, requiring new, accountable political vehicles.
For Nepal’s fragile republic, the lesson is clear: anger without organization breeds chaos; technocracy without legitimacy breeds dependency; and external meddling breeds instability. Only by forging inclusive, accountable institutions can Nepal escape its cycle of unrest.
The September uprising has already redrawn the contours of Nepali politics. Its reverberations will shape not only Kathmandu’s streets but the democratic futures of South Asia as a whole.
References
1. Whelpton, John. A History of Nepal. Cambridge University Press, 2005.
2. Hutt, Michael. Nepal in the Nineties: Versions of the Past, Visions of the Future. Oxford University Press, 1994.
3. International Crisis Group. “Nepal’s Troubled Political Transition.” Asia Report No. 211, 2011.
4. Upreti, Bishnu Raj. The Maoist Insurgency in Nepal: Revolution in the Twenty-First Century. Routledge, 2008.
5. Adhikari, Aditya. The Bullet and the Ballot Box: The Story of Nepal’s Maoist Revolution. Verso, 2014.
6. The Kathmandu Post. “Protest Over App Ban Turns Deadly.” September 10, 2025.
7. The Hindu. “Youth-led Agitation in Bangladesh Topples Government.” August 2024.
8. BBC News. “Sri Lanka Crisis: How Economic Collapse Fueled Mass Protests.” July 2022.
9. Guha, Ramachandra. India After Gandhi: The History of the World’s Largest Democracy. HarperCollins, 2007.
10. Anderson, Benedict. Imagined Communities: Reflections on the Origin and Spread of Nationalism. Verso, 2006.